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The Cassandra Cup 2026 Edition
WHAT DO YOU THINK WILL HAPPEN IN 2026?
In Greek mythology, Cassandra was able to see the future, but had to suffer the curse of no other person believing her predictions.
Whilst few of us have, or believe we have superhuman powers, studies show that nearly all of us (mis)place outsized weight on the accuracy of our predictions about the future.
This annual challenge is an opportunity to remind us all of our forecasting fallibility by putting pen to paper on what you think will happen in 2026 versus friends and colleagues near and far.
Submit your predictions for 2026 below, or see what happened in 2025.
The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable
John Kenneth Galbraith
The 2025 forecast: questions and answers
Yes. Musk “departed” his role as co-lead of the Department of Government Efficiency in May. Officially, his special government employee contract ended. Practically, the experiment concluded when the work was handed back to conventional cabinet structures and Musk returned to orbiting his own ventures. Call it a firing dressed up as a calendar event — Washington remains allergic to the word itself.
No. Despite breathless headlines, benchmark theatrics, and GPT-4.5 clearing ever more human-adjacent tests, no credible lab has declared AGI in a way that the rest of the field has accepted. The goalposts continue to migrate. We have astonishing tools, impressive mimicry, and very capable systems — but no agreed moment where humanity collectively nodded and said, “Yes, this is it.”
No. Not only did Peter Dutton fail to become Prime Minister, he lost his own seat in the 2025 federal election. Labor secured a decisive victory, and the Liberal Party is now led by Sussan Ley. Few predictions age as cleanly — or as brutally — as this one.
No. Diplomatic energy intensified late in the year, with renewed proposals and serious discussion. None of it culminated in a comprehensive, signed ceasefire across all theatres. The conflict continues — proof that “momentum” and “resolution” are not the same thing.
No. 2025 was noisy but not catastrophic. Iceland, Etna, and others kept geologists busy, but no eruption reached the rare VEI-7 threshold. The planet reminded us it’s alive — not that it’s finished with us.
Yes. The "TNT" era reached its logical conclusion on August 26, 2025, when Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce announced their engagement via a joint Instagram post. The pair are reportedly in "celebration mode" and planning a partnership-style wedding that they refuse to rush.
No. The RBA finally blinked in 2025, but they didn't do it in a row. They cut rates by 0.25% in February, paused in April, cut again in May, and once more in August. While homeowners are cheering the 3.60% cash rate, the "two successive" criteria was never met due to the Board's cautious "wait and see" approach between moves.
No. Despite electoral strength and sustained pressure, National Rally did not produce a Prime Minister in 2025. Legal headwinds and coalition arithmetic kept the far-right influential, but not installed at Matignon.
Yes. Bazball is dead, along with several English test careers. The Aussies have been excellent, even with an ‘average’ team.
Yes. Bitcoin cleared the threshold in October 2025. Volatility remained, narratives multiplied, but the utility of blockchain and the promise of Web3 remains unclear.
Yes. No referendum. No constitutional change. King Charles remains Head of State, although pleasingly, his brother is out in the cold.
The 2026 forecast
How to Play
- Review the questions and write a simple 'Yes' or 'No' in each box only. No fence sitting or smart lawyer tricks...you know who you are.
- You must answer every question in order to be able to submit your response.
- Scores will be determined based on objectively reported source, in the event of ambiguity, judge rules...nutter butter!
- Answers will be locked at the end of the first week of Jan, no opportunity to change answers!
- Participants are only allowed one guess each, and can only play once.
- You do not need to disclose your real name, but must share a valid email address.