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The Cassandra Cup 2025 Edition
WHAT DO YOU THINK WILL HAPPEN IN 2025?
In Greek mythology, Cassandra was able to see the future, but had to suffer the curse of no other person believing her predictions.
Whilst few of us have, or believe we have superhuman powers, studies show that nearly all of us (mis)place outsized weight on the accuracy of our predictions about the future.
This annual challenge is an opportunity to remind us all of our forecasting fallibility by putting pen to paper on what you think will happen in 2025 versus friends and colleagues near and far.
Submit your predictions for 2025 below, or see what happened in 2024.
The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable
John Kenneth Galbraith
The 2024 forecast: questions and answers
Yes. Only 60% of people predicted Trump would clinch the nomination, but Donnie returned to the fray in 2024 without as much as a whiff of a challenger.
No. The only person to ever beat Trump (other than prosecutors, civil litigants, and various authorities) wasn't even in the running. After prevaricating for months and depriving the democrats of a real shot, Biden anointed Harris, who then got swiftly run over by the Trump Train.
No. With no seeming end in sight, unless of course you believe Trump's messianic qualities.
No. Happily if you're a worker, annoyingly if you're a central banker, unemployment has gone down in 2024.
No. The economy has roared throughout the year, with the Magnificent Seven leading the charge.
Yes. For better or worse, Abbas remains in place.
No. In a reasonably weird olympics, the City of Light failed to deliver France a record showing.
No. We don't count Silicon Valley Bank as a major bank.
No. Assuming you don't count the coastguard, 'fishing boats' and general belligerence.
Yes. But the temperature of Indian politics continues to rise.
No. India beat South Africa by 7 runs in a thrilling final, and a great tournament all round.
The 2025 forecast
How to Play
- Review the questions and write a simple 'Yes' or 'No' in each box only. No fence sitting or smart lawyer tricks...you know who you are.
- You must answer every question in order to be able to submit your response.
- Scores will be determined based on objectively reported source, in the event of ambiguity, judge rules...nutter butter!
- Answers will be locked at the end of the first week of Jan, no opportunity to change answers!
- Participants are only allowed one guess each, and can only play once.
- You do not need to disclose your real name, but must share a valid email address.
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