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The Cassandra Cup 2024 Edition
WHAT DO YOU THINK WILL HAPPEN IN 2024?
In Greek mythology, Cassandra was able to see the future, but had to suffer the curse of no other person believing her predictions.
Whilst few of us have, or believe we have superhuman powers, studies show that nearly all of us (mis)place outsized weight on the accuracy of our predictions about the future.
This annual challenge is an opportunity to remind us all of our forecasting fallibility by putting pen to paper on what you think will happen in 2024 versus friends and colleagues near and far.
Submit your predictions for 2024 below, or see what happened in 2023.
The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable
John Kenneth Galbraith
The 2023 forecast: questions and answers
No - A controversial question to include in the 2023, but happily 89% of us were right, that Putin didn't give in to the worst of his proclivities and launch a nuclear strike. However, his senseless barbarism continues using more conventional means, and the Ukrainian defenders stand strong whilst the Western world falters over further funding. Read more...
No - After 19 months of nonsense from Erdogan (hard to break the habit of a lifetime), Turkey is set to approve Finland and Sweden's membership of NATO. This forecast failed to be true in 2023 on a technicality, as Turkey's Parliament still needs to vote on this issue early in the New Year. Read more...
Yes - Both premiers kept their jobs this year, largely due to tumultuous events in their respective countries. Most notably, Israel was the subject of an egregious terrorist attack by Hamas, resulting in a state of war, mourning, shock, anguish and retribution (amongst many other things). Read more...
Yes - The cash rate hovers precariously at 4.35% making life miserable for most of us whilst also remaining largely ineffectual on CPI. Unemployment indices are creeping up in line with the RBAs ambition, but moderate-high rates look like they're here to stay for a while. Read more...
No - European energy prices stabilised in 2023, and despite turmoil in the Middle East and increasingly strained relationships within OPEC (Angola comically walked out last week), oil didn't crack $150, but Brent peaked at just over $123 a barrel. Read more...
No - CPI was down to 4.9% in October, but most other indicators remain painfully sticky, and wage growth beyond anaemic at 0.25% for the year meaning most households are experiencing a real term squeeze in the cost of living. Read more...
No - The Bitcoin bullshit was pretty quiet in 2023, but the price didn't return to its 2018 lows, with somewhat of a rally occurring towards the back end of the year at around $43k. Read more...
No - England's laughable display of cricket in the ODI World Cup was (fortunately) easily missed with some excellent displays from both minor and major cricketing nations. Australia silenced a raucous Indian home crowd in the final to win in emphatic style. Read more...
Yes - Few things divided Australia and Australians as much as this year's referendum thanks to a poorly architected referenda by the government, compounded by swirling misinformation and dogma. Read more...
Yes - Happily Lady Liberty showed some signs of life, when New York and Georgian authorities decided that Trump was not above the law and that they had enough evidence to file both state and federal charges. Less happily, US democratic norms continue to take a battering from multiple fronts, all under the spectre of a second Trump term in office irrespective of what happens in court. Read more...
No - Whilst Musk stayed out of the political zoo, he provided entertainment and outrage, in increasingly peculiar ways (high bar notwithstanding) to - ostensibly - campaign for free speech. His cars and rockets aren't bad though.
The 2024 forecast
How to Play
- Review the questions and write a simple 'Yes' or 'No' in each box only. No fence sitting or smart lawyer tricks...you know who you are.
- You must answer every question in order to be able to submit your response.
- Scores will be determined based on objectively reported source, in the event of ambiguity, judge rules...nutter butter!
- Answers will be locked at the end of the first week of Jan, no opportunity to change answers!
- Participants are only allowed one guess each, and can only play once.
- You do not need to disclose your real name, but must share a valid email address.
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